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Rogun construction worsens Uzbek-Tajik relations
 The Tajik government compelled citizens to buy shares in Rogun, calling construction of the hydropower station essential. Uzbekistan says building Rogun will harm the regional ecology. [Rukhshona Ibragimova] |
DUSHANBE -- Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are at loggerheads over a hydropower station.
The start of construction of the Rogun project on the Vakhsh River has done nothing to improve the countries' frayed relations.
Tajik analysts are trying to foresee what Uzbekistan might do, since Tashkent has complained that Rogun's construction without a mutual agreement is intolerable.
Uzbekistan has warned numerous times of environmental consequences. It asked its neighbour in February to allow an independent assessment of Rogun's environmental consequences. Uzbek Prime Minster Shavkat Mirzoyev used the government newspaper, Pravda Vostoka, to cite the potential for environmental damage and earthquakes.
His Tajik counterpart, Akil Akilov, retorted that Tajikistan needed the electricity and that it had taken environmental and geological issues into account.
Uzbekistan was not done with the war of words. Salim Doniyorov, editor of the Uzbek pro-government newspaper Narodnoe slovo, wrote that Tajikistan was engaged in "shady dealings".
Some Tajiks say Russia and Uzbekistan derailed an effort to build the power station nearly 20 years ago.
“Pakistan pledged US $600m (in 1992) to the construction of the hydroelectric plant. … From this, the bloody civil war began”, Tajik Senator Hoji Akbar Turajonzoda said. “Neither Russia nor Uzbekistan wanted Pakistanis … to come to Tajikistan”. But Sergei Yezhkov, an independent political analyst in Uzbekistan, denied the existence of any intrigues.
“There is no need to demonise Russia’s and Uzbekistan’s special services. The civil war in Tajikistan was not their initiative”, he said. Neither country wanted the headache of keeping a neighbouring war from spilling over into its territory, he said.
Analysts on both sides agree on little. But they predict the dispute is far from over.
“It could go as far as military intervention, and (Uzbekistan) would absolutely be in the right", said Uzbek political analyst Aleksandr Knyazev, citing his view that any construction on a trans-boundary river requires international agreement.
But Rustam Samiyev, an independent Tajik political analyst, said the situation is too vague to declare one side right.
“Under existing international law, there are no explicit prohibitions, since the issue of trans-boundary water usage is still subject to discussion”, he said.
Samiyev said neither country’s leadership had the political capital to afford going to war over Rogun.
“Secondly, each of the two countries has a significant diaspora in its neighbour (ethnic Tajiks in Uzbekistan, ethnic Uzbeks in Tajikistan), something that threatens serious internal problems and … the territorial integrity of both states in the face of an ethnic conflict”, he added.
The feuding over the power station owes partly to the two presidents' efforts to build up their own political bases, said an independent Tajik analyst who requested anonymity.
“(Uzbek President Islam) Karimov is trying to prove ... how much he is a ‘non-Tajik’”, the analyst said. “(Tajik President Emomali) Rakhmon is trying to prove in his own country that he is not a protege of Uzbekistan".
Doniyorov said the dispute does favour one interest in particular.
“Those forces who are unfriendly to both neighbourly states and who are interested in destabilising the situation in the region" stand to benefit, he said.
Some kind of agreement is essential, several Uzbek analysts said.
“A water-energy consortium is necessary, which (would include) all the countries of the Aral Basin, plus the investor countries plus possible foreign consumers of the energy”, Knyazev said.
Yezhkov called for an international study of the hydropower project.
“No, it is not always easy and joyful, but any negotiations are a search for a compromise“, he said. “The main thing today is to restore confidence".
Doniyorov agreed. “It is necessary to conduct a (safety and environmental) assessment under the auspices of the UN", he said.
The anonymous Tajik analyst agreed with Uzbek critics of the project, further criticising Rogun as being “in the interests of a handful of oligarchs, not of the nation”.
“Opponents of the dam’s construction stated in the early 1990s that it was not possible to completely rule out water seeping down into salt deposits", he said. "The base of the dam can become so fragile that even a small earthquake can shift it".
“Now they assure us that everything is being taken into account ... and ... that drainage tunnels to prevent water seepage are in the plans”, he said. “However, the question is: Does the ability to completely comply with the principles of engineering exist now?”, he said.
Reader Comments
our dear neigbour you follow by external crasy ideas,that exporting electricity give some huge dividends,but its myths,please look more real.
We Tajiks will never be able to build a hydropower plant, and every Tajik is aware of that. Let's live in peace.
We are going to build the hydro-power plant, whether you want it or not
I do not know whose game it was, but the authorities cheated the people of Tajikistan once again. They collected money and now they do not know what to do with it. They cannot put it to use because permission has not yet been given to build the plant.
it\'s the game of Russia, they are doing it,only
The Tajik and Uzbek people are one nation with different languages. You should not behave like this. We do not need a war. There are enough of them in this world, aren’t there? Look at what has happened to Iraq. Iran is next. These bastards want us to go into a war. They have an interest. Russia will take side with one rival, and the US with the other, and they will be killing us, Muslims. We do not need this. We should be united. Assalamu alaikum.
I am the son of Khabibullo Yakhyayevich Aripov. As I can see, the one who wrote that is dead to shame and has no conscience. Mirzokurbon Sukhrobov wrote his story about the Rogun Dam and about a man who died almost three years ago, the late K.Y. Aripov, the director and founder of the Soghd Regional Center for AIDS Prevention, which made a considerable contribution to preventing the spread of HIV in the Republic of Tajikistan and outside the country. Mirzokurbon Sukhrobov, I expect official apologies from you.
Kill each other...make Russian laugh...stupid idiots!
People, stop arguing about something that is bound to happen. The Almighty told to build the Rogun hydropower plant. This is the will of Allah!!! Instead of attacking each other, let’s face the truth. As a real Muslim, I appeal to all leaders and officials in the Central Asian countries. Stop dancing to the tune of the “great power”. This is our real enemy! They have always humiliated us by calling us “black asses”. They use this expression with reference not only to Tajik people, but also to Uzbeks, Turkmens, Kyrgyz and Kazakhs, to all Central Asians. The Russians call us skibbies. Russian officials do not want Central Asian states to unite. When our stupid leaders stop bickering and unite, we’ll have everything. This alliance will be better than the EU, and we will not depend on anyone, and no one will have to look for work in Russia. We will not be afraid of anyone and will not hear abusive language any longer. This concerns all of us. Who benefits from the visa regime between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan? Do budgets of these countries need such income? Do people benefit from it? There are people in the border areas called pyatidnevka [“a five-day mother”], that is a Uzbek woman who marries her relative in Tajikistan or visa versa. They have to cross the border every five days during five years. Is it good to see a five-day mother with three kids and a baby in her hands waiting in a long queue for hours when it is freezing cold with minus 20 degrees Celsius or plus 50 degrees without a roof over her head? They say a Muslim is a brother to another Muslim, we are all Muslims. Why should we depend on others when we have everything, except friendship and understanding?