Pakistan optimistic of peaceful future

PESHAWAR – Pakistan has unfinished business for 2011.

“The challenge in 2011 will be taking action in North Waziristan to restore the writ of the state,” former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) security chief Brig. (ret.) Mehmood Shah told Central Asia Online.

2010 ended with the military holding fortified positions in Swat and South Waziristan that have restored the state’s authority. It also saw fewer terrorist acts than 2009 did.

North Waziristan is the last bastion of Taliban and al-Qaeda militants in border areas of Pakistan, and the country’s military and political leaders have resolved to strike. However, it is unclear when the action will come.

“We will take action at an appropriate time,” military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas said recently on the state-run television channel.

The weeklong National Games sporting gala in late December in Peshawar exemplified the success achieved against the militancy with Operation Rah-e-Rast (“Operation Right Path”) in Swat and Operation Rah-e-Nijat (“Operation Path to Salvation”) in South Waziristan.

Military regained control of Swat, Mehsud

The Swat and Mehsud areas of South Waziristan contained strategic training and recruitment centres for the Taliban, helping the militancy expand. Military action smashed those centres.

A study revealed that the Taliban carried out 54 suicide bombings in 2010, down from 74 in 2009.

“The operations in Swat and South Waziristan have hit the suicide bombing ability of the militants harder,” Shah said, referring to the marked drop in suicide attacks.

“If we further neutralise the suicide bombing ability of the militants, it will give the security forces an added edge to wipe out the remaining Taliban,” a security official said. “If we further neutralise the suicide bombing ability of the militants, it will give the security forces an added edge to wipe out the remaining Taliban,” a security official who tracks militancy leads in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and FATA told Central Asia Online on condition of anonymity.

KP government spokesman Mian Iftikhar Hussain is “80%” convinced that the death of Taliban suicide bombing mentor Qari Hussain in an air strike near Mir Ali in North Waziristan last year and an end to Mullah Fazlullah’s rule in Swat contributed to the decline in the suicide bombings.

However, some tribal elders disagreed.

“The Taliban suicide bombing ability can be tested only when we launch operations in North Waziristan,” they said by phone from Miranshah, headquarters of South Waziristan. The elders requested anonymity for fear of reprisals.

Observers have cited the return of Mehsud tribesmen, displaced by the military operation against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as a success of 2010.

“The year 2010 was relatively peaceful because the (Pakistani) state, which had been in retreat vis-a-vis militants for so many years, reclaimed the areas it had lost and also asserted itself wherever needed,” Imtiaz Alam, chief executive of the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies, told Central Asia Online.

Hundreds of TTP members arrested

The arrest of hundreds of suspected TTP militants, improved policing in KP, stepped-up air strikes in North Waziristan and pressure on Taliban hideouts in Orakzai and South Waziristan helped drain militant strength, he said.

Iftikhar acknowledged the improved security situation in 2010, but said, “We have to keep the fight on as long as a single remaining militant is not killed or captured.”

“The Awami National Party stands like a rock to defeat the militancy,” KP Provincial Chief Minister Ameer Haider Hoti told a gathering in his hometown of Mardan January 2.

Political ownership of the military operations improved the government’s success against militancy.

“If the military continues to assert itself and the civilian government in KP supplements the military job with better governance, things should keep improving,” Khalid Aziz of RIPORT said.“If the military continues to assert itself and the civilian government in KP supplements the military job with better governance, things should keep improving,” Khalid Aziz, a retired civil bureaucrat who now heads the Regional Institute of Policy Research and Training in Peshawar, said.

The year 2011 should bring “a comparatively better future,” he added. But several analysts also noted that governance must improve or a better future will remain a distant dream in North Waziristan.

“This is a year that will be remembered as when the ... ascendancy of the militants was turned around and they were beaten back,” Aziz said. “However, we should not be complacent and (should) improve governance and provide more opportunities to the poor who have been marginalised by lack of populist policies.”