Al-Qaeda on verge of collapse, observers say

ISLAMABAD – Recent arrests and killings of top al-Qaeda members have fractured the terrorist organisation and will ultimately weaken its capabilities to plan and launch attacks inside and outside Pakistan, defence and security analysts said.

“The arrest of Younas Al Mauritani and two other affiliates after the death of the al-Qaeda second-in-command, Atiya Abdel Rahman (in an aerial strike) is a major setback for al-Qaeda,” senior security analyst and author Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa told Central Asia Online.

Al Mauritani was considered al-Qaeda’s foreign minister. His capture and Rahman’s death on the heels of Osama bin Laden’s death May 2 have splintered al-Qaeda, she said.

The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, in co-ordination with the Balochistan Frontier Corps, captured Al Mauritani, who was mainly responsible for planning and conducting international operations in Quetta, in August but announced the capture September 5. Authorities also captured his colleagues Abdul Ghaffar Al Shami and Messara Al Shami.

“Through this critical arrest, yet another fatal blow has been delivered to al-Qaeda,” Inter-Services Public Relations said September 5, regarding Al Mauritani’s capture.

Arrests have weakened al-Qaeda

Former secretary of defence production and senior defence analyst Lt. Gen. (ret.) Talat Masood agreed that recent events have weakened al-Qaeda’s capabilities.

“In some ways organisationally it is getting weaker because the leadership has been hit,” he said.

Al Mauritani’s arrest signals a crushing blow to al-Qaeda’s efforts to rebuild, Masood said. With his arrest, al-Qaeda appears to have lost a figure who was key to its new approach, as he was assigned to plan international terror attacks after bin Laden died.

Recent events show that al-Qaeda is on the run, not only in Pakistan and Afghanistan but elsewhere, Masood said.

Al-Qaeda has sub-contracted its operations to other groups, indicating that it is more of a network than an organisation, Siddiqa said.

That diversification could help the militancy, she said. Since Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jaish-e-Mohammad and other groups have links to al-Qaeda, Siddiqa said, “To assume that the main Arab al-Qaeda philosophy, the ideology, the network is dead … I think it is a farfetched assumption.”

A weaker al-Qaeda could affect TTP

Al-Qaeda leaders in Pakistan have worked with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) members, Masood said, giving leverage to the TTP.

“Al-Qaeda doesn’t have much manpower in Pakistan, so it likes to promote its ideas and programmes quite possibly in conjunction with the TTP,” Masood said. “But the experience in Afghanistan shows that the Taliban in Afghanistan may be taking a different viewpoint even if they shelter (al-Qaeda members).”

Senior analyst and Pak Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS) Director Aamir Rana sees a decline in the number of terror attacks in Pakistan with the capture and killing of al-Qaeda leaders.

“Al-Qaeda has penetrated a lot and developed a nexus with the Taliban and other militant organisations in recent years,” he said. “Now with the arrest of head of al-Qaeda foreign operations, its capabilities will diminish and will also have impact on its affiliated militant groups.”

Will terror attacks fall off?

Terrorists have launched 116 terror attacks in Pakistan since bin Laden’s death, killing 617 people, he said. However, 2010 saw a 13% decline in attacks compared to 2009, and this year “we can expect even more (of a drop-off),” he predicted.

Rana also foresees a gradual decrease in the number of terror attacks as security forces catch or kill al-Qaeda leaders.

“The assassinations of al-Qaeda-affiliated Taliban leaders Ilyas Kashmiri and Qari Hussain, who were experts of guerrilla warfare and suicide bombings, have ultimately reduced the strength of militant organisations,” he said.

Rahman was also one of the first al-Qaeda leaders to provide a response to the uprisings in the Arab world, urging the group’s supporters to co-operate with the revolts even if the rebellions were not Islamist-inspired.

But Rana is convinced Pakistan has no such room for an uprising as the country has strong democratic institutions and liberty.

“There are no fears of Pakistan becoming a religious state as youngsters believe in democracy and the present political system,” he said.

Ghani Kakar contributed to this report.